Besides fears of victory of the radical right in the elections throughout the Union, Europe this year will be shaken by several crises.
American New York Times made the analysis that represented the four key challenges that are facing Europe and the question arises – you can Europe survive?
Strengthening of the extreme right in the Netherlands
In the Netherlands in Wednesday – parliamentary elections that are expected extreme rightists to go quite well. Currently have 15 of 150 seats in parliament, according to estimates, the new elections could get another 15 seats and become the strongest or second-strongest party in the country.
Party leads Geert Wilders, the populist anti-Islamic views. However, it is difficult to imagine that Wilders and his party would have assumed power in the Netherlands because of formation of a parliamentary majority requires 76 seats which means that the other parties and without it could form a parliamentary majority.
However, these elections are a kind of test for Europe in the wake of elections in France and Germany where also rightists have taken a massive toll. Right-wing parties even if they come to power, it is clear that they can carry a lot of pressure in the direction of creating a populist policies, primarily related to migrant policy and the closure of European integration.
Chaos between Europe and Turkey
Turkish ministers and officials on tour in Europe where persuade the diaspora to vote in a referendum in favor of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, ie that the Constitution be changed to be increased powers for the president.
Germany blocked rallies, and even Dutch and did not allow the Turkish foreign minister to land in the country. Erdogan responded with an acuse to the Dutch and Germans Nazism.
This situation will try to take advantage of both the Turkish and Dutch politicians, mainly to activate the nationalists, but the question is what will happen after the Dutch elections and Turkish referendum. Only then it will be known in which direction will continue to move this diplomatic crisis.
Erdogan could respond so that will allow refugees again to move to Europe, thus leading to destabilization of the West, but Erdogan needs Europe. So, both sides are dependent on each other, but political pressure at some point may become too big.
Activation of Article 50
British Parliament approves the prime minister Theresa May to activate Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, which will formally begin the process of leaving the UK to the European Union. Bregzit a topic in diplomatic talks over 9 months but still it is not know the outcome that will result in the EU, and that the consequences for the British.
When Article 50 is activated, the British will have two years to conclude negotiations for leaving. If the contracts are not completed within that period, the United Kingdom will be thrown out of the EU without any agreement. But no one knows what that means. The British want it to pass easily, but the maximum Brussels will make it difficult to stop other states to do the same.
The biggest question is – Are EU citizens in the UK will retain the rights that they have and leaving the European Union? One thing is certain – Bregzit will certainly harm the British economy, but also of European unity.
The issue for Scotland and Northern Ireland
Prime Minister of Scotland announced a new referendum on the independence of the country that it intends to remain in the European Union. Prime Minister announced that a referendum should be held when you know all the implications of Bregzit.
The last referendum on the subject resulted in 55% of the vote in favor of staying within the United Kingdom but Bregzit could significantly affect the decision of the new referendum. It is known that Scotland and Northern Ireland do not share the same vision for the United Kingdom in London and would rather remain in the EU.
UK what we know today could easily fall apart, but it’s too early to tell whether it really can happen.